In the past few days, the BTC/USD pair formed a decent support base above the $11,350 level and recently started recovering. The recovery wave was such that BTC broke a couple of key hurdles near the $11,500 and $11,600 levels.
Moreover, there was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $11,900 high to $11,350 swing low. The BTC price is now trading above $11,650, but it is facing a major hurdle near $11,700 and the 100 hourly simple moving average (SMA).
More importantly, there is also a major bearish trend line forming on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, with resistance near $11,690. The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $11,900 high to $11,350 swing low. The hourly MACD for the pair is slowly losing momentum in the bullish zone. Its hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) is now well above the 50 level, with a bullish angle.
On the upside, a clear break above the trend line resistance, $11,700, and the 100 hourly SMA could push the price towards the $11,800 resistance. A successful close above the $11,800 level might lead the price towards the $12,000 resistance in the near term. In the mentioned bullish case, the bulls are likely to gain strength and propel the price towards the $12,500 level.
Conversely, if BTC fails to continue higher above the 100 hourly SMA or the $11,700 resistance, it could trigger a fresh rejection and a bearish reaction. An initial support on the downside is close to the $11,600 level. The first major support is near the $11,520 level, below which the price might decline towards the $11,350 support level in the coming session.