The BTC/USD pair recently made a sharp downward move below the $11,500 support level. The BTC price even traded below the $11,200 support level and settled well below the 100 hourly simple moving average (SMA). A low was formed close to $11,130 and the price started recovering slowly and steadily. The recovery wave was such that the price climbed above the $11,200 and $11,400 levels.
Moreover, there was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $12,084 high to $11,130 low. The BTC price even climbed above the key $11,500 level, but it is now facing a strong resistance near $11,650. The hourly MACD for the pair is about to move into the bearish zone. Its hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently declining below the 50 level.
Notably, there is also a crucial bearish trend line forming on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair with resistance near $11,620. The trend line is near the 100 hourly SMA, which is preventing an upside break above the $11,650 level. BTC is also struggling to close above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $12,084 high to $11,130 low.
On the upside, if there is a successful break above the trend line, the 100 hourly SMA, and $11,650, the price is likely to start a strong uptrend. The next resistance above $11,650 is near the $11,800 level, above which the bulls are likely to aim more upsides above the $12,000 and $12,050 levels in the coming sessions.
Conversely, if BTC fails to clear the trend line, the 100 hourly SMA, and $11,650, then there are chances of a fresh decline. An initial support on the downside is seen close to the $11,400 level. The main support is currently near the $11,120 level, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline below the $11,000 support. In the mentioned bearish case, the price could even test the $10,500 support in the near term.